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Saturday 27 December 2008

Top Article, Millenium Topic, Energy Biofuel and Food Dilema!

"Transportation bio-fuels such as synfuel hydrocarbons or cellulosic ethanol, if produced from low-input biomass grown on agriculturally marginal land or from waste biomass, could provide much greater supplies and environmental benefits than food-based bio-fuels. "

Neither Bio-diesel nor Ethanol, bio-fuel can replace much petroleum without impacting food supplies.

Even dedicating all U.S. corn and soybean production to bio-fuels would meet only 12% of gasoline demand and 6% of diesel demand.

To be a viable alternative to current transportation fuel, a bio-fuel should provide:
- a net energy gain,
-have environmental benefits,
-be economically competitive, and
-be producible in large quantities without reducing food supplies.

These criteria were used in life-cycle accounting, by the research team from the University of Minnesota to evaluate, ethanol from corn grain and bio-diesel from soybeans.

They conclude that:

Transportation bio-fuels such as synfuel hydrocarbons or cellulosic ethanol, if produced from low-input biomass grown on agriculturally marginal land or from waste biomass, could provide much greater supplies and environmental benefits than food-based bio-fuels.

Bio-diesel provides sufficient environmental advantages to merit subsidy. (debatable)

Some Life Cycle Accountancy results:
Energy Efficiency
-Ethanol yields 25% more energy than the energy invested in its production, whereas
-Bio-diesel yields 93% more.
Green House Gases (GHG) and Pollutants:
Bio-diesel better than Ethanol :
-Bio-diesel releases just 1.0%, 8.3%, and 13% of the agricultural nitrogen, phosphorus, and pesticide pollutants, respectively, per net energy gain compared with ethanol.
Bio-diesel better than Ethanol better than Fossil Fuels:
-Relative to the fossil fuels they displace, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced 12% by the production and combustion of ethanol and 41% by bio-diesel.
-Bio-diesel also releases less air pollutants per net energy gain than ethanol.

These advantages of bio-diesel over ethanol come from lower agricultural inputs and more efficient conversion of feedstocks to fuel.


Negative environmental consequences of fossil fuels and concerns about petroleum supplies have spurred the search for renewable transportation bio-fuels. Until recent increases in petroleum prices, high production costs made bio-fuels unprofitable without subsidies.

My Comment:
That bio-diesel provides sufficient environmental advantages to merit subsidy requires careful reading of the research paper and important effort in communication globally especially with special consideration given to possible negative signals given on food stress.

Source:
PNAS Dec 2008

Contributed by David Tilman, June 2, 2006Environmental, economic, and energetic costs and benefits of bio-diesel and ethanol biofuels Jason Hill*,,,§, Erik Nelson, David Tilman*,§, Stephen Polasky*,, and Douglas Tiffany +Author Affiliations Departments of *Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior and †Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108; and ‡Department of Biology, St. Olaf College, Northfield, MN 55057

Saturday 13 December 2008

NAP- Science and Decision -Advancing Risk Assessment - Pre-Publication by National Academies Publications -USA

I was hoping to do a long awaited introduction to USA's National Academies Published reports -NAP publications, which I have been portraying on several of my blogs, freely and shamelessly, without comment - especially materials science and innovation related publication according to relevance to my blog approaches and focus - unforgivable!

The US Nation Academies include: The Academy of Sciences, The Academy of Engineering, The Institute of Medicine and The Research Council.

NAP are in the process of redesigning their online presentation using a rather neat Widget, proposing attractive report cover images and buttons for easy access to free online reading short summaries (pdf), executive summaries (pdf) and RSS feed printing individual pages and of course a paid print edition. Although outwardly similar in form, my own humble first "SpringWidget ®" for feed presentation and sharing-distribution, is pale in comparison.

Here, I have chosen to comment on a very recent publication (2008) "Science and Decision: Advancing Risk Analysis" which I found via their RSS widget button while up-dating previous widgets on Materials Science and Engineering [my blog].

Great I thought, it fits my "This-Above-All_BOOKS_JOURNALS _TOOLS" blog focus - "It's all in the name " so to speak. [NB notice the previous link takes you to a new page where the NAP reports are housed, complicated?]

All three apply: Books, Journals and Tools-Widgets. Scroll or mouse-over my leader banner above. "Conversation" for the focus I am trying to give to the "This-Above-All series (3 blogs)

I first consulted the short summary (pdf) which I found most interesting - bringing focus to the complex subject of Risk Assessment. From this summary I had a "first impressions feeling" as very much an outsider, albeit of english mother tongue, that one had to, sort of, read between the line. Not surprisingly carefully worded concern appeared to be expressed on the " difficult challenges" facing the informative friendly US Environmental Protection Agency-EPA.

I have on several occasions found well presented basic information on the EPA website which has been useful in my Innocentive® Challenge proposed solution submissions. [Too friendly not enough Clout?] Also strangely, an example on trichloroethylene given in the introduction dated from 1980's on, when my own experience in practice - my first company training as a student "Trichlo" could only be used in industrial baths equipped with aspiration (1970's?)

Prudence led me to examine the full report. Unfortunately, I found I could not read the very small print. It turned out that I had chosen to blog my first and only pre-publication version! Or was I fortunate? There is a strict warning not to reproduce nor alter the official summary-So I heartily suggest you consult the links on my blog or search NAP's Site for your favourite subjects. As yet I have not found the contact address to address my small contribution to what appears to be an interesting contribution to Advance Risk Assessment and so mitigate worst consequences. I can't wait to get a quick read at the full version. In fact my mishap as often on Internet lead me to find fully readable NAP reports related to and precursors to the above.

Source

Science and Decision -Advancing Risk Assessment-summary and
Recommended Related title: Models in Environmental Regulatory Decision
Link to both NAP-Widget presentation my LHS-Left-Hand-Side menu
My Blog This-Above-All_Books_Journals_Tools

Full NAP Catalogue.

Friday 28 November 2008

Modern Management and The World in 2009, The old year out, the new year in.

The Economist has issued it’s latest online forecast edition: In Modern Management and The World in 2009. Before the ink was dry the terrible news of events in India fell.

All news and comments taking a rear-seat in comparison with the very sad news of these events. The Economist reacted immediately with a very timely, thoughtful and well-balanced article in The Economist online .

In spite of this and an Airbus flight trial crash with more irreversible losses, I still wish to bring my readers attention to the earlier Economist leader “Modern Management and The World in 2009.” Although their previsions are doleful, they are yet far from the seriousness of the above events.

On the contrary, in spite of the pain announced for 2009 the ironic style and humour of the journalist are both a warning to all concerned and a source of inspiration and hope to fight the worst effects.

I know of no more succinct crash course in modern management, summary of recent managerial trends over the last two or three decades with a short-term projection. (NB not a fact nor an event)

To quote outrageously from The Economist

I. Modern management: Lesson I A-Z: All you need is cash.

"Lately, the guiding principle for managers everywhere has been to gather up whatever cash they can find, and then do their damnedest to keep as much of it as possible for as long as possible. This increasingly desperate search is changing modern management—not always for the better.

The increasingly desperate search for the stuff is changing modern management—not always for the better

SELDOM has corporate strategy been turned on its head so quickly:
-Barely a year ago, cash was a dangerous thing to accumulate: activist investors stalked companies, urging boards to return it to investors, to pay special dividends or to buy back shares.
-Ever since the 1980s the fashion had been to make companies as lean as possible, outsourcing all but your core competencies, expanding your just-in-time supplier system around the globe, loading up with debt to “leverage” your balance-sheet. Old-style defensive conglomerates, such as Arnold Weinstock’s General Electric Company, were dismantled. Companies that hoarded cash—even ones as good as Toyota and Microsoft—were viewed with suspicion.

-No longer! For many big American companies, the day of reckoning came two months ago when the deepening financial crisis brought about the abrupt closure of the overnight commercial-paper market. This briefly sent even the most solid companies into a desperate scramble to find money to meet such basic obligations as paying their staff. Since then, the guiding principle for managers everywhere has been to gather up whatever cash they can find, and then do their damnedest to keep as much of it as possible for as long as possible.

Source:
All you need is cash

II. The World in 2009: The year of the CFO - Chief Financial Officer.

Is due to the inimitable, entertaining Lucy Kellaway in Nov 19th 2008 From The World in 2009 print edition, courtesy of The Economist online. Ref & Link below

"Prepare for the year of the finance director. In 2009 the world will find out just how bad corporate balance sheets really are, and companies—most of which escaped the early effects of the credit crunch—will start to find it trickier to raise money. Add to that the upward push in costs and downward slide in demand, and the chief financial officer (CFO) will be called upon to shore up the P&L –(profit and losses) , too.
Corporate life won’t be funny


There will be a shift in the balance of power in the boardroom, which will affect how companies are managed, what it feels like to work in them, the culture of business and even its language. More »

Thinking outside the box (an over-rated activity at the best of times) will not be celebrated. Ticking boxes will be
No one will talk of EQ (“emotional intelligence quotient”) any more. It will be EVA (“economic value added”)
Goodbye “talent”, hello “staff”
Prepare for the year of the finance director. CFO –Chief Financial Officer Up DRH down
“Yet being a corporate foot-soldier in 2009 is not going to be enjoyable.”

And concludes
The firm financial leadership will be welcome in that it will help companies survive, yet being a corporate foot-soldier in 2009 is not going to be enjoyable.
-Moaning will be on the rise as inexorably as expenses will be on the decline.
-There will be less foreign travel, which will make work more efficient but duller.
-There will be no more free champagne in first class—it will be steerage only.
-Expense-account lunches and subsidised health clubs will be slashed, and stationery cupboards will be thinly stocked.
One blessed thing will be cut: weekend off-site meetings in luxury hotels.
-If managers feel the need to bond at all it will be more likely over a quick cup of tea from the vending machine.
-There will be no more laughter workshops led by an outsourced facilitator
—but then in the new world of 2009 there is not going to be a lot to laugh about.

Source:
The World in 2009: The year of the CFO - Chief Financial Officer.

"A sketch is better than a long speech." - Great graphics on CO2 emission -Best Bookmarks - The CO2 benchmark

"Un croquis vaut mieux qu’un long discours."Fr., "A sketch is better than a long speech." Attributed to -Napoleon

May I suggest that the more important the issue, the more important the role of the sketch, the image or the photo.

The Financial Times in declaring: "Climate change – and its wider impact – is incontestably the most important issue facing mankind today – and tomorrow, too. It affects all people, regardless of nationality, faith or colour. In the first of a three part series Financial Times looks at the science of climate change-link html.", certainly appears to have mastered the art demonstrating this by a great piece of attractive easy to read mouse-over graphics under their title:

Mapping carbon dioxide emissions
Published in FT : September 11 2008 16:13.
A geographical and US state-by-state snapshot of carbon dioxide emissions and a timeline of major events in climate change negotiations.

It is a very handy tool and well worth bookmarking.

Source:

1. Financial Times looks at the science of climate change-link html.

Other related blog postes:



2. Roadmap - The Most Urgent Issue Facing Mankind - Climate Change and Energy from The Financial Times . -posted 18 Nov08



3. Climate Change 3 part series from FT-Financial Times-"No getting away from it" Follow-up from OCDE Forum 2008? posted 5 June 08.

Tuesday 18 November 2008

A MUST READ:Roadmaps in Science and Development -Energy Policy - The National Academies-The Royal Society of London

FEAR IS A BAD COUNCILLOR! - Open for discussion.

Don't ask me why I did not write on this (these) great resource(s) provided by our, National Academies and Royal Societies, truly indispensable lighthouses of scientific endeavour.

Perhaps it's because of their greatness, of their immense contribution as individual National Academies and their legendary, healthy, competitive spirit as in Great Britain (The Royal Society) and France (L'Academie des Sciences). Perhaps too, this frightens lessor beingings!

More and more, we can expect their united concerned voices and their combined influence on global issues be heard, especially on issues which threaten to endanger the planet and human life on it, such is the exponential increase in mankinds technological "development". The best known examples are Nuclear Power and most recently the inter-acting issues of Energy and Climate Change. cf other sources 3 & 4 below.

I do not intend to write about the historical origins as such but to introduce probably the oldest and arguably the most famous and independent scientific body- The Royal Society of London which has a history covering 350 years, in her own words:

"The history of science since 1660 is closely intertwined with the story of the Royal Society."

On the contrary I would like to underline their power of vision and foresight by referring to some of their publications which in many respects may be looked-upon as true road-maps. It is perhaps a truism to say that "all serious foresight must be based on science and the scientific method and once the direction traced, must be periodically reviewed against the latest findings and corrected as necessary in appropriate feedback loops tending ever towards a common aim." That of human enlightenment, " I believe.

The first publication I wish to present is Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A (Phil Trans R Soc A.) Phil Trans is the oldest scientific journal in the english speaking world after the French Journal des sçavans. Phil Trans is still published today, making it the world's longest running scientific journal and as such is the oldest scientific journal.

I have chosen to present in this blog the special proceeding of the conference "Energy for the Future" for it's relevance to current preoccupations on energy and climate fuelling current economic crises under a "smoke screen" of our financial system, the highly visible part of the, unfortunately non-proverbial, "fast melting iceberg"! (cf. stop press Ref. 5 below)

In the right hand side vertical bar the corresponding feed is listed and by clicking on the Phil. Trans R. Soc. A journal cover image the reader is directed to the site original R Soc. page and web.

Phil Trans R Soc A covers Physics, Chemistry, Mathematics and Engineering all tool to under-pin the foresight map.

However even in this short introduction to the Royal Society Proceedings the full width and depth of their intervention must be mentioned. To quote the Society:

"Topical issues on which the Royal Society has conducted a study, issued a science brief, held a meeting, issued a press release..." are give in the link 2. below


Other Sources:

1. History Time line for The Royal Society
Wikipedia -Philosophical_Transactions of the Royal Society

2. Topical issues on which the Royal Society has conducted a study, issued a science brief, held a meeting, issued a press release.

3. A Joint Statement on Climate Change - summary

4. Full statement : 2008 Joint science academies' statement: Climate change adaptation and the transition of a low carbon society

5 Stop-press-"Melting ice now main driver of rising sea levels: study" from AFP

Roadmap - The Most Urgent Issue Facing Mankind - Climate Change and Energy from The Financial Times

The following introduction:

"Climate change – and its wider impact – is incontestably the most important issue facing mankind today – and tomorrow, too. It affects all people, regardless of nationality, faith or colour. In the first of a three part series Financial Times looks at the science of climate change-link html. "

was first posted on my "Conversations-on-Innovations" original blog on Thursday, June 05, 2008.

This declaration from a "Financial World Leader" comforted my earlier decision (June 2006) to put the "Climate Change & Energy themes" to the forefront of my blogging activity while struggling to integrate this with my professional interest in metallurgy, materials science - processes and product applications! When I think back it is a logical almost ineluctable progressing rooted in a deep felt interest in nature, understanding nature through science. Could this be the subconscious reason to my blog title and personal reminder:

"This-above all, to thine own self be true"?

and provided the driving force to return into declared realms of leadership, management , typical Scottish "canniness" or prudence through an avowed attempt to overview and comment upon the Foresight approaches in the present blog. "This-above all".

Three or Four other remarks maybe worth making:

1. It is not surprising that The Financial Times echos, what is almost entirely credited to the UK Economist, Stern, ex-director at the World Bank and Chairman-co-ordinator of famous Stern report.

2. This foresight on the looming economic and financial crises was insufficient to hive off the current "recessionary trends." There could be an alternative title for this blog "When will we ever learn?" as a famous song by three apostles-saints, Peter, Paul, Mary, goes.

3. To quote, roughly from memory (yesterday 081116 on french radio) the "best President France has never had", Michel Rocard, ex-Prime Minister and true statesman the current french Left-wing appear to have ignored:

"The present crises is an economic one compounded by the currently absurd financial system."

NB. a personal remark - the cynicism of "some" top managers" lets say those in the news ( The Bankers) appears to have no limits. Not only are tax payer bail-outs not to be squandered on end of year bonuses but that we are expecting the "evil gains of much of the last 8 to ten years maybe more" to be put more important good use - in a transparent way.


Thursday 13 November 2008

Creating Tomorrow - Never so necessary, never so urgent? - Organisational Change Processes & Strategy

Critical comments with references (links) based on a white paper: "Creating a Value Driven Change Capability for Executing Organisational Strategy from Cranfield School of Management – April 2008" by Prof Chris Edwards and Rob Lambert of Cranfield School of Management.

Their leader quote is:
"As Darwin so aptly states the winners tomorrow may well not be today’s strongest, nor today’s most intelligent,but those most adaptable to change."

"Suffer-in-silence"? (JA)

For my generation and probably Prof. Edward's this could be an never ending refrain: Bob Dylan sang many years ago "The Times they are a changing "

The following quote also from the authors:
"Today with responsiveness and agility increasingly becoming the organisational focus, clear lines of responsibility for change are essential." provoked my comment as follows:

Although typical in management school & company jargon this could well conjure-up an image of a "Circus" in the minds of the worse critics, today the critics are most likely to be a disallusioned general public and we can be sure the humourists won't miss their target if they ever turn from their main political targets! Aren't we lucky, we scholars and bloggers?

I felt it was high-time to look again at this, apparently galvauded subject; "Organisational Change and Transformation"

A free white paper by the, UK-IT magazine & website ZD.Net, provided stimulation and ample material for my post.

The authors of the paper, Edwards & Lambert ascertain that there are many indications that the rate of organisational change / transformation is increasing with an associated increase in investment risk. Their paper was published in April 2008. In the light of what is common knowledge today - "financial crises, recession, increasing unemployment..." this appears to be a euphimism. As "insider management observers" the authers probably benefited from some privileged foresight.

The subject is most often treated as a management process topic. Edwards & Lambert consider that there is perhaps one more important issue:

"Maybe more important than an effective process is the unifying of responsibility for ‘creating tomorrow’".

This is not really revolutionary. It simply found resonance in me from my own knowledge and reading on management, notably what Peter Senge in the 5th Disciplne terms "The motivationg power of vision of a shared vision" Senge likens this to the elastic band pulling reaction pulling towards a shared vision and goal.

cf. my earlier post in my Sept. 2006 post: INNOVATION -THE WORTHWHILE PROJECT-Conversational styled, review of science's powerful tool "The Experimental Method" in politics and humanities from Blog.

"In many organisations responsibility for delivering today’s performance is clear whereas that for creating tomorrow is less so. "

I wonder if my Hypothesis in Recession and The Environment I – Climate Change -Root Causes and Solutions 26 Sept. 2008. and

Recession and The Environment II – Climate Change: Root Causes and Solutions
also in my "Conversations-on-Innovations" Blog
is to some extent substantiates of these "States of Affaires", the short vs the long view or again as Senge puts it "The Art of The Long View"!

Or again as some sceptics may put it "What is as opposed to what could or should be...?


"All of this investment in change is in an attempt to create a ‘better tomorrow’ for the organisation."

I believe, even the most causual of observers, like me for example, have noticed such apparently huge investments -often seen as real lay-Offs or simple stock-market - manipulation announcements?

My turn to ask the pundit's what is specifically the true, objective ROI-return on investment on such schemes whatever the errors underlined by the scholars?

Whatever, Edwards & Lambert have provided a useful summary paper on the subject raising many questions on change management and it's processes worth summarizing as follows:

An 80/20 rule: THE ANSWER IS IN THE QUESTIONS (QUESTIONING PROCESS MANAGEMENT!)

-Exactly who in an organisation aligns, prioritises and coordinates the portfolio of business change initiatives, ranging from IT enabled change to Six Sigma local projects as well as strategic imperatives defined by the Board?
-Who is responsible for creating organisational readiness for change? Who ensures that adequate business change resources are allocated to each initiative? Who mobilises the various groups that need to be involved in operationalising the change (IT, Organisational Development (OD), etc)? Who tests and signs off the change as suitable in terms of efficiency and compliance?
-Just who rigorously conducts post implementation investment reviews on business change programmes? Some of these tasks are frequently allocated to a Programme Office but such a group often exists to provide administrative and support services only; not a truly managerial capability, with real responsibility and authority. The above questions relate to responsibility for the creation of the organisation’s tomorrow and, as such, it could be said to be the CEO’s responsibility.

"But then everything is the CEO’s responsibility and he/she only has 16 working hours in each day! "

What !!! ?

Comment: Come on Edwards & Lambert... and a fat salary to pay for help but only an "outsider would dare say this, n'est ce pas!

In summary, it is considerably less clear who coordinates and operationalises the creation of tomorrow’s business than it is to understand who delivers today’s business.


Edwards & Lambert summarise the numerous ‘methodologies’ which have been proposed to achieve "successful transformation."
and extract main themes which they bring together to form an Organisation’s Change Capability. cf. Table labled Fig. 1.


The first four elements are concerned with developing an agreed change portfolio.
The literature stresses the criticality of the leadership team communally committing to this prioritised portfolio.

The remaining six elements are involved with the detailed planning, delivery and review of the change initiatives.

As outlinned above recent research undertaken at Cranfield by Professor Chris Edwards & Rob Lambert suggests that these six elements are necessary but they are insufficient, in themselves, to deliver the critical benefits(the famous bottom red-line profit or a more hollistic better future for all?). Realisation of these benefits is more closely associated with the formulation of an agreed change portfolio. (as discussed above.)

Edwards and Lambert state that:
"Their purpose in writing this article is to stimulate a debate so that organisations begin to enhance their capability for executing the business strategy. As the school report might say “More emphasis needed on ‘strategy execution’ and rather less on ‘creating the perfect business direction’”.

"Maybe more important than an
effective process is the unifying of
responsibility for ‘creating tomorrow’."

I can live with that, better, I can perhaps turn this into "I can live better with that", a more hollistic "Global Approach".

SOURCES & REFERENCES:

1. N° 8. Financial Management (Cranfield). In Top Ten White Papers curtesy of ZDNETUK, this Week Nov08 (Free upon sign on)

2. INNOVATION -THE WORTHWHILE PROJECT-Conversational styled, review of science's powerful tool "The Experimental Method" in politics and humanities

3. Recession and The Environment I – Climate Change -Root Causes and Solutions 26 Sept. 2008.

4. Recession and The Environment II – Climate Change: Root Causes and Solutions

Stop press on Recession 13Nov2008 17h00- !

Economic group OCDE says developed world in recession

Sunday 9 November 2008

Top 100 Science Blogs by WIKIO-Blog Road MAPS_Science

"In order to contribute usefully via blogging, I believe it is essential to look at what is going on in the blogsphere, in my professional area this means, Science in general and Metallurgy-Materials Science-Processes-Products, Technology & Engineering in particular."

The difficulty facing all science bloggers is, of course, the very high standards set by the major publishers of science with their professional staff of scientists, journalists or both scientists and journalists: science journal editors and the many national and international learned scientific bodies especially in english. Their contribution must be given great credit whatever your scientific position on publication, commentary and review may be: open source or traditional peer reviewed publication etc...

This, may be said of all related, highly published, disciplines covered by major higher education institutions and practices: universities, medical and engineering and management schools as well as research institutions and companies...

In order to contribute usefully via blogging, I believe it is essential to look at what is going on in the blogsphere, in my professional area this means, Science generally and Science-Materials-Processes-Products, Technology & Engineering in particular. The blogger must find a new-slant, a new niche market.

The following top 100 Blog list link is due to Wikio cf SOURCE below.

Many of the science blogs listed are relatively unknown to me.

Indeed, I am most especially looking forward to learning more of my colleague bloggers work, interests and approaches to blogging.

Nevertheless, from one or two of the blogs that I know of, I am a little surprised by the classification. For example, Sciencebase, by UK Scientise and Journalist David Bradley is of a very high professional standard and although very well positioned at N° 57 does appear to deserve a better position. It would be interesting to hear what other feel. (National readership-population, subject area in vogue - hot Topic such as Climate Change. Language - here I am thinking of Jancovici's site Manicore.

SOURCES:

Top 100 Science Blogs by WIKIO

General Chemistry based Science often refreshingly opiniated.
D. Bradley's Sciencebase

Cutting edge scientific hot topics
RealClimate

Response to Climate Change often by "simple" order of magnitude calculation - "back of a cigarette packet calculation" - "calculations which kill the sceptics stone cold":

Jean-Marc Jancovici's Site - Manicore: Should one read "Man is the main core-key" to current climate change-global warming trend?"
Jean-Marc Jancovici's Site MANICORE

Monday 29 September 2008

Recession and The Environment II – Climate Change: Root Causes and Solutions -Link

"Between you and me"

Part II of a "This-Above-All" Hot Topic:- Top Management - Leadership "Re-current Affairs" :

Here you will find my links to further elements to support the daring- almost presumptuous hypothesis advanced in my previous post "Recession and The Environment I.

"Many of you may have been surprised, as I was myself, (confidentially) by the extent of my uncharacteristic daring leading to the first analysis and opinion, as to the root causes and solutions to the the top "Re-current Affairs" issue of the day: "Economic & Financial Recession" cf. Title above.

Well rather than back-off, I'm sure you will be pleased to read further evidence in support of my previous hypothesis. The urge to further research the issue came rapidly. Evidence came equally rapidly. A couple of Google searches and my experience of good sources turned up a comment on "Recession, Energy <=>Environment, Finite Resources, Climate Change.

Again, my full post sources and links may be found "@" (at)
"Conversations-on-Innovations"

Again I am sure you will agree, that this and more especially the original sources upon which I based this "still scant" reflection, merit a wide echo.

Comment more than welome.

Many many thanks to :
1. Pacala of Princeton Univ., IOP's environmentalresearch online magazine interview,

2. JFK Jean-Francois Kahn-interviewed on Europe I radio
2. Markannash and BBC blog line P.Mason,

Friday 26 September 2008

Recession and The Environment I – Climate Change-Root Causes and Solutions

I propose to develop the hypothesis that lack of vigour to combate climate change, especially by world leading US administration, is one root cause, if not the main root cause for the current economic-financial recession. I base this on the stabilising wedge methodology proposed by Pacala & Socolow and specifically in the excellent interview given by Pacala to IOP – Environmental Research.

It has just been posted to my blog "Conversations-on-Innovations" -[LINK]

My proposed conclusion
But US did not sign Kyoto, and push it forward - as in the famous SALT treaties on nuclear arms control, of which I am no expert-, and this has sent all the wrong messages. It could plausibly be argued that this is the root cause of the current financial crash and recession-JA.

I urge you to read me, my original source and comment -naturally praise is preferable, abuse tolerated, but Above-All all information will be shared unless otherwise requested. Feel free - Tighter emissions rationing is on the agenda and economic resession will not be tollerated - work that one out.

Wednesday 24 September 2008

Guns, gems and steel: The Fate(s) of Human Societies

I have long waited an opportunity to acknowledge this “Conversation”, to talk "waybackmachine” so to speak, since the original posted material dates from 1999-2000.

Shortly after, I stumbled-upon the comments provoked by Berkeley Univ., Top Economist, Bradford DeLong following his review of the book by Jared Diamond, “Guns, Germs, and Steel.” Most comments were contributed by erudite members of a list. (a list is a group of experts who agree to co-operate on themes of mutual interest; suggest themes for debate and exchange opinions and views via Internet etc. - web conversations).

Certainly as a materials scientist & engineer; metallurgist, one-time steelmaker, the title “Guns and Steel” caught my attention. Perhaps I misread too, “Germs as Gems”, another metals- minerals– mining theme. The global nature of Diamonds thesis certainly intrigued me, familiar with the post WWII suspicion over the role played in events leading to and during WWII by the Steel Baron’s of the day. Not sufficient reason to motivate further comment, though. My motivation to engage, again, in the present conversation over global issues at such a belated stage had to be very strong indeed.

In this, my scientific fibre was rudely awakened to what more and more consider to be the most important problem facing humanity over the next 30 years namely climate change and the end of relatively “easy to tap energy.” My pride as a member of the scientific community took a bashing. I knew practically nothing of the scientific basis of Climate Change, to Ecology as a serious subject and approach to an Environment in Danger, our Environment!

As an engineer I felt personally challenged to re-examine my past role (not as bad as many, if I may say so) but more importantly what useful role should I play . In this latter quest for (or against) concerted and educated action I discovered RJ Barendse’ s contribution to the “Diamond – DeLong” conversation - starter and to the Dutch experience and probing past record and approaches to such difficult questions, consolidating my own general knowledge and intuition on the Dutch experience. It was “This Above All” that led me to post the my impressions.

But before that, a word on the book which catalysed my enquiry: Guns, Germs, and Steel. by J. Diamond- Quoting Brad. DeLong:

“I think it is very much worth reading: it may well be the best book I read in the 1990s. It is truly a work of complete and total genius.” Brad justifies, his appreciation in the following terms, quote: “Why? Why did Europeans conquer Peru, Mexico, Ghana, and Australia? Why didn't Incas, Aztecs, Ashanti, or Australians conquer Eurasians. That is the question that Jared Diamond answers--largely successfully--in this book. And his answer can be summed up in one phrase: "seeds, germs, size, and guns." (Note that the answer is not "guns, germs, and steel"--a phrase that is more euphonious but less meaningful.)”

[PS. DeLong has “moderated and reproduced on his personal site a number of enlightening comments from what appears to be a wide cultural and academic cluster of readers-contributors to this field – what my search leads me to believe that this is an approach to what is known as “The World System.” To retain an equally scientific sceptical stance, I have not as yet established whether this may or not be just another approach to the Theory of Everything.”
I was soon reassured as to the value of the review and the comments.

Contributors who posted their comments, I deduced while preparing my post are members of a list of mostly academics from the fields of History, Geography, Economics and Sociology who correspond regularly. Many interesting and worthwhile comments, often very critical, may be accessed via DeLong’s website.

Last but not least is the substantial contribution by R. J. Barendse, of the University of Leiden on May 7, 2000. His comments turned into the long and insightful conversational piece, a thesis which stuck in my mind to the time of writing. [ Here is a link to RJB's biography.]
His criticisms and opinion as a historian are to the best of my knowledge a very fruitful source of inspiration & analysis necessary to colour the debates on Climate Change: Social, Societal-Economics & Survival, problems which many consider today to be the most important issue of the present day, throughout the next 30 years and unfortunately, perhaps throughout this century. Climate Change Indicators have gone from Orange to flashing bright Red!

(Repeated again on the radio interview with the French Consummers Associatoion last week "60 Million [French] Consumers – concerning hard fought lobbied standardised performance indicators, found by the Association to be quite inadequate and even misleading on economic and environmental automobile performance while “All CC – climate Change” indicators on Red! cf. image on the right.)

RJB’s remarks evolve into an in-depth description of how medieval Netherlands developed gradually from a very unfavourable-inhospitable environment into the highly populated advanced economy whose success to date in mastering the environment provides answers to some, if not all, of the most crucial questions raised in the face of more and more certain predicted climatic change effects. Living proof of the ability of a people to very successfully intervene and shape their landscape and develop a high standard of living.

He relates this to historical development in Africa, raised by Diamond’s book and questions the judgement that medieval “African farming was backward” or even the ‘definition of Africa due to the wide differences encountered.’ He gives praise to the considerable indigenous farming results given their landscape and points out with examples of major failures in applying European methods in Africa.

Old Style Environmental History:

He qualifies Jared Diamond’s (et al.) approach as “Old Style Environmental History” which assumes :
-the environment is `something given' - that it is `fixed'.
-Agricultural population tend simply to expand until they reach an `environmental wall, fixed by nature itself, which can not be moved. E.g. Europe is `more fertile than the tropics because its climate is moderate and it has thick soil, hence agriculture in the tropics is less productive, hence `civilization had less of a chance to develop in Africa than in Europe or in the Middle East'.

“New Environmental History”

He debunks the above "old economy reasoning", pointing out that, the Netherlands environment is very poorly endowed and yet it's Europe's most densely populated region and adds that this applies to several other European core-regions too. (Flanders for example which also suffers from too much water, or the Po-region,[Italy] which has had major problems with drainage and is badly malaria-prone, are also rather poorly endowed. They `should' have been uninhabited if it wasn't for other factors). The actual regional geography of Europe does not support the idea that its core-regions are particularly well fitted for agriculture - instead we have to study the long-term trend of settlement, which in many of these cores is closely related to that of trade. E.g. Holland might not have developed at all if it would have been located in Jutland rather than on the Rhine. RJB maintains that, “the environment is only one production-factor next to several others: gender relations being one, definitions of property being another and technology being still another. Attempts to explain human history through the environment are therefore equally unsatisfactory as - the, to be sure, more common - attempts to explain everything through property-relationships.

The environment is surely important but it should be seen as moulded by human intervention, which is moulded by technology, which is moulded by property-relationships, which are moulded by gender-relationship.

RJB clain's that: "this is a point long recognized by `new environmental history': a field in which - I'm proud to say - Dutch medieval history has been a pioneer. Thus, e.g. in the extensive Dutch research on floods, and climatic change in the North Sea in relationship to agricultural development in Holland. Dutch agriculture constantly adapted to its really rather harsh environment; e.g. by increasingly resorting to cattle instead of grain in the much colder and wetter conditions in the fifteenth century as compared to the thirteenth.
These comments appear so relevant in the light of the present day’s plights.

RJB makes a number of other points of importance depending upon the readers domain of interest and concludes on Diamond’s main theme of “ Western Dominance”…
“But the problem is of course that the European/US discourse is still that of power in the world - and in Africa in particular. Or do you see, say, Sudan imposing economic sanctions on the US because it doesn't like the `pornography' coming out of the USA ? Or do you see, say, Nigeria sending marines to Britain to safeguard Nigerian citizens against police beatings? Or - to mention a case from only yesterday - Senegal cutting development-aid to Holland as a sanction on the activities of Dutch pimps recruiting girls in Dakar ? Hence, Europe - and the US in particular - has a special responsibility for understanding other cultures for they have more power to influence them too. "
But I shall leave these speculations entirely to Barendse, for I do believe we do understand the desperation and misguidance which leads for example to suicidal terrorism and invite the interested reader to read the full comments.
Here my main aim is to bring this historical view of medieval Netherlands – note, not pre-historical view_ and it’s obvious relevance within today’s context of climate change and our apparent lack of vigour (and rigour) in tackling it.

I shall post on recent opinions on Dutch approaches to landscaping in the light of extravagant projects such as those of say Dubai for example.

Sources:

Bradford Delong's Book Review:
Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies (New York: W.W. Norton: 0393038912).

J. Bradford DeLong's Site and current reflections-link

Roadmap - Further reading:
Globalisation Web Site
The Journal of World History and examples to read

Tuesday 9 September 2008

Top-Technology Trends from Roland Piquepaille_ Frenchman who blogs in english

Photo right- NASA: Ship trails over the Bay of Biscay -illustrates a scientific phenomenon known as the "Twomey Effect".

I first learned of Roland's Blog while "half"-listening to the french radio, Europe.

Roland is quoted on the radio; "as being a passionate reader and observer of scientific and technological progress, choosing what grabs his imagination at the moment - his hearts desire - "ses coups de coeur.""

I checked two recent posts 7 & 8 Sept08 and found an irresistible urge to delve into this work. I suppose that's the whole point of scientific communication.

Roland's blogs are extremely well presented, are well very documented via the classical post embedded links technique. New to me was the excellent link and tag presentation system, a problem that I have recently confronted with leading me to experimenting a Tag Cloud approach-also useful for analysing word relevance marketing input. Roland Piquepaille uses the Yahoo associated Delicious social bookmarking platform. His site is well worth more than a fleeting visit by any serious aspiring content oriented blogger, as it was to me, in my own efforts to improve my approaches to blogging.

Content is rich, but easy to read. It is I believe, from a rapid perusal, a useful contribution to the scientific technological, engineering and medically oriented blog-sphere. Albeit the very very high quality of sources both from scientific press news and online peer reviewed Journals. cf. Main Sources below.

Here I shall echo, to a large extent, only the first post I read, at Roland's Blog[Link-html] concerning a fairly radical approach to fighting climate change by a method well known to the scientific and engineering community as: autonomous cloud-seeding by a fleet of ships. This is the sort of thing reported here cf. photos. The important corpus of scientific data may be consulted via links below.

This is a big project if undertaken and cost estimates advanced are reported by Piquepaille. Serious science is deeply involved who further remarks in the following taken from his blog:

"This project has been led by Professor John Latham of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. Latham worked with colleagues at the University of Edinburgh led by Professor Stephen Salter, whose main field is Wave Energy for Electrical Power Generation. You can see another picture of these conceptual cloud-seeding ships on page 3 of a paper presented by Slater in October 2005, "Beyond carbon: consideration of albedo control technologies to mitigate climate change" (PDF format, 6 pages, 653 KB)."
He further remarks that the research is supported by the highly reputable Royal Society and has been published in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, PTRS_A under the title "Sea-going hardware for the cloud albedo method of reversing global warming" on August 29, 2008."

Piquepaille portrays an couple of often published speculative photos - artists views & a trial platform to fix the reader's attention and summarises sufficient data to whet the appetite of the motivated engineer or perhaps the motivated engineering firm -NB. NASA have tackled much more challenging & horrendous tasks.

Trial Rig

It is interesting that the decision makers and activists , take note that various pros and cons from a variety of sources are mentioned. Good places to get a balance view should the project be required to be taken from print to product - the probability is, I surmise, not a Non-Zero option, unfortunately, whatever our feelings to the contrary maybe in spite of continuing expert's lashing "Global Political Leadership. "

The link to the full text of this paper (PDF format, 18 pages, 1.75 MB). This article was included in a special issue of the PTRS journal named "Geoscale engineering to avert dangerous climate change" which carried another article co-authored by Latham, "Global temperature stabilization via controlled albedo enhancement of low-level maritime clouds."

Main Sources well worth reading:


(1) Edwin Cartlidge, for PhysicsWorld.com, September 4, 2008, and includes numerious comments and further references.

(2) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0136 Published online
Sea-going hardware for the cloud albedo method of reversing global warming by
STEPHEN SALTER 1,*, GRAHAM SORTINO 2 AND JOHN LATHAM 3
1Institute for Energy Systems, School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, UK 2School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9AB, UK 3National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA

NB. Geoscale engineering articles available online via FirstCite, (among many titles on diverse Science and Technological Issues).

Coping with carbon: a near-term strategy to limit carbon dioxide emissions from power stations
Issue Title
Theme Issue ‘Geoscale engineering to avert dangerous climate change’ compiled by Brian Launder and J. Michael T. Thompson
DOI
10.1098/rsta.2008.0113
Online Date
Friday, August 29, 2008

All Roland Piquepaille's selections may be found on his full blog at this [LINK]
Footnote:
The “Twomey effect”, says that increasing the concentration of water droplets within a cloud raises the overall surface area of the droplets and thereby enhances the cloud’s albedo-ie. the reflectivity of clouds lying about 1 km above the ocean’s surface.
By spraying fine droplets of sea water into the air, the small particles of salt within each droplet act as new centres of condensation when they reach the clouds above, leading to a greater concentration of water droplets within each cloud.

Friday 11 July 2008

One of the World's Leading Lights in Global Development _ The relative newcomer Bill Gates

“Humanities greatest advances are not in it’s discoveries - but in how those discoveries are used to reduce inequity” Quote by Bill Gates in "Grand Challenges in Global Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation"[link above-html].

Although the above link does not quote the "corollary", I am sure that Bill would be the first to agree that many of the applications, any systems approaches implied by his quote, depends greatly on discoveries great and small, witness the Foundations strong board of Scientific Consultants.

Global Development fuelled by The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Bill & I both share a strong interest (& investment) in Libraries. In my case, like many of my fellow Scots, this is an almost a "lifelong" involvement. Could it be genetic; Alexander...a bit pretentious, but not exaggerated, such is my own personal attachment, especially to public or public oriented libraries. Much more likely, this is a cultural and historical trait, I like to feel a Scottish Hallmark. Scotland has been a haven for refugees since the time of period of Enlightenment, in Economics, Philosophy,Religion-Theology and last but not least in Science, Technology & Engineering. It is heartening to know that this tradition has been upheld to a large extent in North America with her famous libraries and know in the Internet Age, by such initiatives as "The Wayback Machine" , Wikipedia etc. Currently all North America,USA in fact, does not appear to share Bill Gates' philosophy nor follow his lead, could I be wrong? There is a lot to be said in favout of Bill's approach as quoted, n'est ce pas.

Monday 7 July 2008

INNOVATION -THE WORTHWHILE PROJECT-Conversational styled, Review of Science's Powerful Tool "The Experimental Method" in Politics and The Humanities

As one of my more original and I feel better papers, I feel it fitting to bring the readers attention again (& again!) to this earlier work, first published (2004) on ChemWeb and still available on their archive. A full post is available to read and copy (with proper reference to the author, yours truly, of course). It is available on my blog "Conversations on Innovations" at the following Link

I do hope you enjoy reading My Published Paper-Free Online Link
as much as I enjoyed writing it, and look forward to your "comments and questions"

Sincerely

Historical note on my blog experience and evolution

"This above all -to thine own self be true,
And it must follow, as the night, the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man."

My web-logs began with a website-8 personal pages, offered by Orange.fr. Then followed my 1st Blog effort, thanks to Google's Blogger. Initially I had little idea as to the proper focus to bring to my blog. Sustainable development, climate change, my professional evolution, as a process metallurgist in high temperature physical-chemistry a very masculine notion of one's self had taken me far from another facet of one's "self." My natural but mixed instinct for nature, ingrained by my countryish, small industrial, seaside- town, birth place. A visit to my daughter in the French Antilles-Guadeloupe consolidated my already; ecological, environmental, christian-social-conscience, tendency. I chose two intimately related "World Changing" concepts: Firstly Conversations" & secondly it's Scientific, Technical and Engineering corollary "Innovation." The width of ad hoc themes which crop-up, within such a self-imposed, but extremely open mandate led me to set-up various more dedicated blogs, sites, or pages and what have you. In these first two sites although references to management, economy, leadership are often implied, they tend to take second place to my more scientific (invention motor) and technical inclinations. Herein, I shall make some attempt to correct previous bias. As the reader may have seen, I started these pages with my first motivating posts copied from my "Conversations" blog. I shall reproduce my paper, first published on ChemWeb, on the Job seeker seen as a Project Manager and I shall reference the last few posts strongly management related, on climate change from the Financial Times, The Economist, Nature, and one of the Big Five Management Services-Accountancy firms, KPMG. Hopefully I shall remain focused and relevant, without being overly pedantic, retaining humour and perhaps some typically human zany creativity!

Saturday 28 June 2008

If there are bounds to any man

For more on the theme "If there are bounds to any man."
the title of a poem by H. MacDiarmid in Scots-English with a translation to French, by the chap in the photo, please click and visit Poems by H.MacDiarmid-Bilingual English-French

You will find a host of other subjects raised by Little Big Mac-Diarmid to comment upon via the above link.




Personal Motto: "To thine own self be true..."
Shakespeare, Hamlet.

when expanded begins in a very weblog controversial manner in Polonius' advice to his son:



"Give thy thoughts no tongue,
nor any unproproportioned thought his act"
...
and terminates:
"And this above all "To thine own self be true..."
And it must follow as the night follows the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man."

Futures Quotes - The future has several names_G8_2005

ref. from my very 1st web-log

Saturday, July 02, 2005

"The future has several names. For the weak, it is the impossible. For the faint-hearted, it is the unknown. For the thoughtful and valiant, it is the ideal."

by Victor Hugo (ref. Quote of the Day, 2 July 2005, from Arcamax_com)

Unfortunately the Super Scooter, my wife Françoise & I used to visit the Isles "Les Saintes" Guadeloupe, (Gwada for short) French Antilles, is not a fully life-cycle accredited electric & photovoltaic job. But this will be coming soon. Our journey to "audit" Teaching Staff & living conditions there was entirely paid by our Carbon Credits. We "walked the talk." as an X-ray of my knees can testify, a biometrical id witness.

Towards Clean Energy Ideals - Towards Clean Energy Ideals - Towards Clean Energy Ideals
To be added to the Human Rights Chart -The Arbroath Amendment.?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/scottishhistory/independence/features_independence_arbroath.shtml

G8 Gleneagles Scotland best known for Golf Courses & Greens. Could be worth some thought?

Web logged:
From an ex-caddy at the Scottish Amateur Golf Championship at Western Gailes perhaps the most beautiful course in South West of Scotland at the time, around 1960. Two rounds caddied, 18 holes each, my first consultancy job! With only 2 months school holiday playing experience, loaned clubs of a varied nature & quality, on the local public course (Irvine-Municipal) I was terrorised throughout at the idea of giving bad advice. Was I glad "we" lost that second round. I remember because I needed spectacles to read the school blackboard the following September, or the one after. In spite of moving to sit at the front of the class I still couldn't read the board, but learned early (not as early as some) that it can be comfortable to sit below a teachers gaze!