Modern Management and The World in 2009, The old year out, the new year in.

The Economist has issued it’s latest online forecast edition: In Modern Management and The World in 2009. Before the ink was dry the terrible news of events in India fell.

All news and comments taking a rear-seat in comparison with the very sad news of these events. The Economist reacted immediately with a very timely, thoughtful and well-balanced article in The Economist online .

In spite of this and an Airbus flight trial crash with more irreversible losses, I still wish to bring my readers attention to the earlier Economist leader “Modern Management and The World in 2009.” Although their previsions are doleful, they are yet far from the seriousness of the above events.

On the contrary, in spite of the pain announced for 2009 the ironic style and humour of the journalist are both a warning to all concerned and a source of inspiration and hope to fight the worst effects.

I know of no more succinct crash course in modern management, summary of recent managerial trends over the last two or three decades with a short-term projection. (NB not a fact nor an event)

To quote outrageously from The Economist

I. Modern management: Lesson I A-Z: All you need is cash.

"Lately, the guiding principle for managers everywhere has been to gather up whatever cash they can find, and then do their damnedest to keep as much of it as possible for as long as possible. This increasingly desperate search is changing modern management—not always for the better.

The increasingly desperate search for the stuff is changing modern management—not always for the better

SELDOM has corporate strategy been turned on its head so quickly:
-Barely a year ago, cash was a dangerous thing to accumulate: activist investors stalked companies, urging boards to return it to investors, to pay special dividends or to buy back shares.
-Ever since the 1980s the fashion had been to make companies as lean as possible, outsourcing all but your core competencies, expanding your just-in-time supplier system around the globe, loading up with debt to “leverage” your balance-sheet. Old-style defensive conglomerates, such as Arnold Weinstock’s General Electric Company, were dismantled. Companies that hoarded cash—even ones as good as Toyota and Microsoft—were viewed with suspicion.

-No longer! For many big American companies, the day of reckoning came two months ago when the deepening financial crisis brought about the abrupt closure of the overnight commercial-paper market. This briefly sent even the most solid companies into a desperate scramble to find money to meet such basic obligations as paying their staff. Since then, the guiding principle for managers everywhere has been to gather up whatever cash they can find, and then do their damnedest to keep as much of it as possible for as long as possible.

Source:
All you need is cash

II. The World in 2009: The year of the CFO - Chief Financial Officer.

Is due to the inimitable, entertaining Lucy Kellaway in Nov 19th 2008 From The World in 2009 print edition, courtesy of The Economist online. Ref & Link below

"Prepare for the year of the finance director. In 2009 the world will find out just how bad corporate balance sheets really are, and companies—most of which escaped the early effects of the credit crunch—will start to find it trickier to raise money. Add to that the upward push in costs and downward slide in demand, and the chief financial officer (CFO) will be called upon to shore up the P&L –(profit and losses) , too.
Corporate life won’t be funny


There will be a shift in the balance of power in the boardroom, which will affect how companies are managed, what it feels like to work in them, the culture of business and even its language. More »

Thinking outside the box (an over-rated activity at the best of times) will not be celebrated. Ticking boxes will be
No one will talk of EQ (“emotional intelligence quotient”) any more. It will be EVA (“economic value added”)
Goodbye “talent”, hello “staff”
Prepare for the year of the finance director. CFO –Chief Financial Officer Up DRH down
“Yet being a corporate foot-soldier in 2009 is not going to be enjoyable.”

And concludes
The firm financial leadership will be welcome in that it will help companies survive, yet being a corporate foot-soldier in 2009 is not going to be enjoyable.
-Moaning will be on the rise as inexorably as expenses will be on the decline.
-There will be less foreign travel, which will make work more efficient but duller.
-There will be no more free champagne in first class—it will be steerage only.
-Expense-account lunches and subsidised health clubs will be slashed, and stationery cupboards will be thinly stocked.
One blessed thing will be cut: weekend off-site meetings in luxury hotels.
-If managers feel the need to bond at all it will be more likely over a quick cup of tea from the vending machine.
-There will be no more laughter workshops led by an outsourced facilitator
—but then in the new world of 2009 there is not going to be a lot to laugh about.

Source:
The World in 2009: The year of the CFO - Chief Financial Officer.

"A sketch is better than a long speech." - Great graphics on CO2 emission -Best Bookmarks - The CO2 benchmark

"Un croquis vaut mieux qu’un long discours."Fr., "A sketch is better than a long speech." Attributed to -Napoleon

May I suggest that the more important the issue, the more important the role of the sketch, the image or the photo.

The Financial Times in declaring: "Climate change – and its wider impact – is incontestably the most important issue facing mankind today – and tomorrow, too. It affects all people, regardless of nationality, faith or colour. In the first of a three part series Financial Times looks at the science of climate change-link html.", certainly appears to have mastered the art demonstrating this by a great piece of attractive easy to read mouse-over graphics under their title:

Mapping carbon dioxide emissions
Published in FT : September 11 2008 16:13.
A geographical and US state-by-state snapshot of carbon dioxide emissions and a timeline of major events in climate change negotiations.

It is a very handy tool and well worth bookmarking.

Source:

1. Financial Times looks at the science of climate change-link html.

Other related blog postes:



2. Roadmap - The Most Urgent Issue Facing Mankind - Climate Change and Energy from The Financial Times . -posted 18 Nov08



3. Climate Change 3 part series from FT-Financial Times-"No getting away from it" Follow-up from OCDE Forum 2008? posted 5 June 08.

A MUST READ:Roadmaps in Science and Development -Energy Policy - The National Academies-The Royal Society of London

FEAR IS A BAD COUNCILLOR! - Open for discussion.

Don't ask me why I did not write on this (these) great resource(s) provided by our, National Academies and Royal Societies, truly indispensable lighthouses of scientific endeavour.

Perhaps it's because of their greatness, of their immense contribution as individual National Academies and their legendary, healthy, competitive spirit as in Great Britain (The Royal Society) and France (L'Academie des Sciences). Perhaps too, this frightens lessor beingings!

More and more, we can expect their united concerned voices and their combined influence on global issues be heard, especially on issues which threaten to endanger the planet and human life on it, such is the exponential increase in mankinds technological "development". The best known examples are Nuclear Power and most recently the inter-acting issues of Energy and Climate Change. cf other sources 3 & 4 below.

I do not intend to write about the historical origins as such but to introduce probably the oldest and arguably the most famous and independent scientific body- The Royal Society of London which has a history covering 350 years, in her own words:

"The history of science since 1660 is closely intertwined with the story of the Royal Society."

On the contrary I would like to underline their power of vision and foresight by referring to some of their publications which in many respects may be looked-upon as true road-maps. It is perhaps a truism to say that "all serious foresight must be based on science and the scientific method and once the direction traced, must be periodically reviewed against the latest findings and corrected as necessary in appropriate feedback loops tending ever towards a common aim." That of human enlightenment, " I believe.

The first publication I wish to present is Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A (Phil Trans R Soc A.) Phil Trans is the oldest scientific journal in the english speaking world after the French Journal des sçavans. Phil Trans is still published today, making it the world's longest running scientific journal and as such is the oldest scientific journal.

I have chosen to present in this blog the special proceeding of the conference "Energy for the Future" for it's relevance to current preoccupations on energy and climate fuelling current economic crises under a "smoke screen" of our financial system, the highly visible part of the, unfortunately non-proverbial, "fast melting iceberg"! (cf. stop press Ref. 5 below)

In the right hand side vertical bar the corresponding feed is listed and by clicking on the Phil. Trans R. Soc. A journal cover image the reader is directed to the site original R Soc. page and web.

Phil Trans R Soc A covers Physics, Chemistry, Mathematics and Engineering all tool to under-pin the foresight map.

However even in this short introduction to the Royal Society Proceedings the full width and depth of their intervention must be mentioned. To quote the Society:

"Topical issues on which the Royal Society has conducted a study, issued a science brief, held a meeting, issued a press release..." are give in the link 2. below


Other Sources:

1. History Time line for The Royal Society
Wikipedia -Philosophical_Transactions of the Royal Society

2. Topical issues on which the Royal Society has conducted a study, issued a science brief, held a meeting, issued a press release.

3. A Joint Statement on Climate Change - summary

4. Full statement : 2008 Joint science academies' statement: Climate change adaptation and the transition of a low carbon society

5 Stop-press-"Melting ice now main driver of rising sea levels: study" from AFP

Roadmap - The Most Urgent Issue Facing Mankind - Climate Change and Energy from The Financial Times

The following introduction:

"Climate change – and its wider impact – is incontestably the most important issue facing mankind today – and tomorrow, too. It affects all people, regardless of nationality, faith or colour. In the first of a three part series Financial Times looks at the science of climate change-link html. "

was first posted on my "Conversations-on-Innovations" original blog on Thursday, June 05, 2008.

This declaration from a "Financial World Leader" comforted my earlier decision (June 2006) to put the "Climate Change & Energy themes" to the forefront of my blogging activity while struggling to integrate this with my professional interest in metallurgy, materials science - processes and product applications! When I think back it is a logical almost ineluctable progressing rooted in a deep felt interest in nature, understanding nature through science. Could this be the subconscious reason to my blog title and personal reminder:

"This-above all, to thine own self be true"?

and provided the driving force to return into declared realms of leadership, management , typical Scottish "canniness" or prudence through an avowed attempt to overview and comment upon the Foresight approaches in the present blog. "This-above all".

Three or Four other remarks maybe worth making:

1. It is not surprising that The Financial Times echos, what is almost entirely credited to the UK Economist, Stern, ex-director at the World Bank and Chairman-co-ordinator of famous Stern report.

2. This foresight on the looming economic and financial crises was insufficient to hive off the current "recessionary trends." There could be an alternative title for this blog "When will we ever learn?" as a famous song by three apostles-saints, Peter, Paul, Mary, goes.

3. To quote, roughly from memory (yesterday 081116 on french radio) the "best President France has never had", Michel Rocard, ex-Prime Minister and true statesman the current french Left-wing appear to have ignored:

"The present crises is an economic one compounded by the currently absurd financial system."

NB. a personal remark - the cynicism of "some" top managers" lets say those in the news ( The Bankers) appears to have no limits. Not only are tax payer bail-outs not to be squandered on end of year bonuses but that we are expecting the "evil gains of much of the last 8 to ten years maybe more" to be put more important good use - in a transparent way.

"Gentlemen show you are true leaders, ones we may be proud of " !

Sources:

Climate Change 3 part series from FT-Financial Times-"No getting away from it" Follow-up from OCDE Forum 2008?

The Financial Times


climate change series from The Financial Times

Creating Tomorrow - Never so necessary, never so urgent? - Organisational Change Processes & Strategy

Critical comments with references (links) based on a white paper: "Creating a Value Driven Change Capability for Executing Organisational Strategy from Cranfield School of Management – April 2008" by Prof Chris Edwards and Rob Lambert of Cranfield School of Management.

Their leader quote is:
"As Darwin so aptly states the winners tomorrow may well not be today’s strongest, nor today’s most intelligent,but those most adaptable to change."

"Suffer-in-silence"? (JA)

For my generation and probably Prof. Edward's this could be an never ending refrain: Bob Dylan sang many years ago "The Times they are a changing "

The following quote also from the authors:
"Today with responsiveness and agility increasingly becoming the organisational focus, clear lines of responsibility for change are essential." provoked my comment as follows:

Although typical in management school & company jargon this could well conjure-up an image of a "Circus" in the minds of the worse critics, today the critics are most likely to be a disallusioned general public and we can be sure the humourists won't miss their target if they ever turn from their main political targets! Aren't we lucky, we scholars and bloggers?

I felt it was high-time to look again at this, apparently galvauded subject; "Organisational Change and Transformation"

A free white paper by the, UK-IT magazine & website ZD.Net, provided stimulation and ample material for my post.

The authors of the paper, Edwards & Lambert ascertain that there are many indications that the rate of organisational change / transformation is increasing with an associated increase in investment risk. Their paper was published in April 2008. In the light of what is common knowledge today - "financial crises, recession, increasing unemployment..." this appears to be a euphimism. As "insider management observers" the authers probably benefited from some privileged foresight.

The subject is most often treated as a management process topic. Edwards & Lambert consider that there is perhaps one more important issue:

"Maybe more important than an effective process is the unifying of responsibility for ‘creating tomorrow’".

This is not really revolutionary. It simply found resonance in me from my own knowledge and reading on management, notably what Peter Senge in the 5th Disciplne terms "The motivationg power of vision of a shared vision" Senge likens this to the elastic band pulling reaction pulling towards a shared vision and goal.

cf. my earlier post in my Sept. 2006 post: INNOVATION -THE WORTHWHILE PROJECT-Conversational styled, review of science's powerful tool "The Experimental Method" in politics and humanities from Blog.

"In many organisations responsibility for delivering today’s performance is clear whereas that for creating tomorrow is less so. "

I wonder if my Hypothesis in Recession and The Environment I – Climate Change -Root Causes and Solutions 26 Sept. 2008. and

Recession and The Environment II – Climate Change: Root Causes and Solutions
also in my "Conversations-on-Innovations" Blog
is to some extent substantiates of these "States of Affaires", the short vs the long view or again as Senge puts it "The Art of The Long View"!

Or again as some sceptics may put it "What is as opposed to what could or should be...?


"All of this investment in change is in an attempt to create a ‘better tomorrow’ for the organisation."

I believe, even the most causual of observers, like me for example, have noticed such apparently huge investments -often seen as real lay-Offs or simple stock-market - manipulation announcements?

My turn to ask the pundit's what is specifically the true, objective ROI-return on investment on such schemes whatever the errors underlined by the scholars?

Whatever, Edwards & Lambert have provided a useful summary paper on the subject raising many questions on change management and it's processes worth summarizing as follows:

An 80/20 rule: THE ANSWER IS IN THE QUESTIONS (QUESTIONING PROCESS MANAGEMENT!)

-Exactly who in an organisation aligns, prioritises and coordinates the portfolio of business change initiatives, ranging from IT enabled change to Six Sigma local projects as well as strategic imperatives defined by the Board?
-Who is responsible for creating organisational readiness for change? Who ensures that adequate business change resources are allocated to each initiative? Who mobilises the various groups that need to be involved in operationalising the change (IT, Organisational Development (OD), etc)? Who tests and signs off the change as suitable in terms of efficiency and compliance?
-Just who rigorously conducts post implementation investment reviews on business change programmes? Some of these tasks are frequently allocated to a Programme Office but such a group often exists to provide administrative and support services only; not a truly managerial capability, with real responsibility and authority. The above questions relate to responsibility for the creation of the organisation’s tomorrow and, as such, it could be said to be the CEO’s responsibility.

"But then everything is the CEO’s responsibility and he/she only has 16 working hours in each day! "

What !!! ?

Comment: Come on Edwards & Lambert... and a fat salary to pay for help but only an "outsider would dare say this, n'est ce pas!

In summary, it is considerably less clear who coordinates and operationalises the creation of tomorrow’s business than it is to understand who delivers today’s business.


Edwards & Lambert summarise the numerous ‘methodologies’ which have been proposed to achieve "successful transformation."
and extract main themes which they bring together to form an Organisation’s Change Capability. cf. Table labled Fig. 1.


The first four elements are concerned with developing an agreed change portfolio.
The literature stresses the criticality of the leadership team communally committing to this prioritised portfolio.

The remaining six elements are involved with the detailed planning, delivery and review of the change initiatives.

As outlinned above recent research undertaken at Cranfield by Professor Chris Edwards & Rob Lambert suggests that these six elements are necessary but they are insufficient, in themselves, to deliver the critical benefits(the famous bottom red-line profit or a more hollistic better future for all?). Realisation of these benefits is more closely associated with the formulation of an agreed change portfolio. (as discussed above.)

Edwards and Lambert state that:
"Their purpose in writing this article is to stimulate a debate so that organisations begin to enhance their capability for executing the business strategy. As the school report might say “More emphasis needed on ‘strategy execution’ and rather less on ‘creating the perfect business direction’”.

"Maybe more important than an
effective process is the unifying of
responsibility for ‘creating tomorrow’."

I can live with that, better, I can perhaps turn this into "I can live better with that", a more hollistic "Global Approach".

SOURCES & REFERENCES:

1. N° 8. Financial Management (Cranfield). In Top Ten White Papers curtesy of ZDNETUK, this Week Nov08 (Free upon sign on)

2. INNOVATION -THE WORTHWHILE PROJECT-Conversational styled, review of science's powerful tool "The Experimental Method" in politics and humanities

3. Recession and The Environment I – Climate Change -Root Causes and Solutions 26 Sept. 2008.

4. Recession and The Environment II – Climate Change: Root Causes and Solutions

Stop press on Recession 13Nov2008 17h00- !

Economic group OCDE says developed world in recession

Top 100 Science Blogs by WIKIO-Blog Road MAPS_Science

"In order to contribute usefully via blogging, I believe it is essential to look at what is going on in the blogsphere, in my professional area this means, Science in general and Metallurgy-Materials Science-Processes-Products, Technology & Engineering in particular."

The difficulty facing all science bloggers is, of course, the very high standards set by the major publishers of science with their professional staff of scientists, journalists or both scientists and journalists: science journal editors and the many national and international learned scientific bodies especially in english. Their contribution must be given great credit whatever your scientific position on publication, commentary and review may be: open source or traditional peer reviewed publication etc...

This, may be said of all related, highly published, disciplines covered by major higher education institutions and practices: universities, medical and engineering and management schools as well as research institutions and companies...

In order to contribute usefully via blogging, I believe it is essential to look at what is going on in the blogsphere, in my professional area this means, Science generally and Science-Materials-Processes-Products, Technology & Engineering in particular. The blogger must find a new-slant, a new niche market.

The following top 100 Blog list link is due to Wikio cf SOURCE below.

Many of the science blogs listed are relatively unknown to me.

Indeed, I am most especially looking forward to learning more of my colleague bloggers work, interests and approaches to blogging.

Nevertheless, from one or two of the blogs that I know of, I am a little surprised by the classification. For example, Sciencebase, by UK Scientise and Journalist David Bradley is of a very high professional standard and although very well positioned at N° 57 does appear to deserve a better position. It would be interesting to hear what other feel. (National readership-population, subject area in vogue - hot Topic such as Climate Change. Language - here I am thinking of Jancovici's site Manicore.

SOURCES:

Top 100 Science Blogs by WIKIO

General Chemistry based Science often refreshingly opiniated.
D. Bradley's Sciencebase

Cutting edge scientific hot topics
RealClimate

Response to Climate Change often by "simple" order of magnitude calculation - "back of a cigarette packet calculation" - "calculations which kill the sceptics stone cold":

Jean-Marc Jancovici's Site - Manicore: Should one read "Man is the main core-key" to current climate change-global warming trend?"
Jean-Marc Jancovici's Site MANICORE