Risk assessment of radioisotope contamination for aquatic living resources in and around Japan_encouraging figures for sea fish. Full paper on PNAS

Risk assessment of radioisotope contamination for aquatic living resources in and around Japan:

Risk assessment of radioisotope contamination for aquatic living resources in and around Japan

1. Hiroshi Okamuraa,1, 
2. Shiro Ikedab, 
3. Takami Moritac, and 
4. Shinto Eguchib

Author Affiliations

1. Edited by David Cox, Nuffield College, Oxford, United Kingdom, and approved January 26, 2016 (received for review October 6, 2015)

1. Abstract
2. Full Text
3. Authors & Info
4. Figures
5. SI
6. Metrics
7. Related Content
8. PDF
9. PDF + SI

Significance

Quantification of contamination risk caused by radioisotopes released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant is useful for excluding or reducing groundless rumors about food safety. Our new statistical approach made it possible to evaluate the risk for aquatic food and showed that the present contamination levels of radiocesiums are low overall. However, some freshwater species still have relatively high risks. We also suggest the necessity of refining data collection plans to reduce detection limits in the future, because a small number of precise measurements are more valuable than many measurements that are below detection limits.

Abstract

Food contamination caused by radioisotopes released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant is of great public concern. The contamination risk for food items should be estimated depending on the characteristics and geographic environments of each item. However, evaluating current and future risk for food items is generally difficult because of small sample sizes, high detection limits, and insufficient survey periods. We evaluated the risk for aquatic food items exceeding a threshold of the radioactive cesium in each species and location using a statistical model. Here we show that the overall contamination risk for aquatic food items is very low. Some freshwater biota, however, are still highly contaminated, particularly in Fukushima. Highly contaminated fish generally tend to have large body size and high trophic levels.

• detection limit
 
• radiocesium
 
• random effects
 
• statistical risk assessment
 
• Weibull distribution

Footnotes

• 1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: okamura@fra.affrc.go.jp.

• Author contributions: H.O. designed research; H.O. performed research; H.O., S.I., T.M., and S.E. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; H.O. analyzed data; and H.O., S.I., T.M., and S.E. wrote the paper.
• The authors declare no conflict of interest.
• This article is a PNAS Direct Submission.
• See Commentary on page 3720.
• This article contains supporting information online atwww.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1519792113/-/DCSupplemental.

Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.

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Ecology: Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics_from the renowned PNAS, (US Academy of Science) Paper freely available.

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics

Is I believe, a most welcomed contribution to help adjust to climate change.

Read the full paper below (page foot)  

1. Janet Franklina,1, 
2. Josep M. Serra-Diaza,b, 
3. Alexandra D. Syphardc, and 
4. Helen M. Regand

Author Affiliations

1. Contributed by Janet Franklin, February 2, 2016 (sent for review October 8, 2015; reviewed by Gregory P. Asner, Monica G. Turner, and Peter M. Vitousek)

1. Abstract
2. Full Text
3. Authors & Info
4. Figures
5. SI
6. Metrics
7. PDF
8. PDF + SI

Significance

Global terrestrial vegetation plays a critical role in biogeochemical cycles and provides important ecosystem services. Vegetation has been altered by anthropogenic global change drivers including land-use change, altered disturbance regimes, invasive species, and climate change, for decades to centuries, or in some cases millennia. Vegetation responses to land use and disturbance can be more immediate than to climate change and can be long lasting. The effect of global warming on water balance may have a stronger influence than the direct effects of temperature on vegetation. Models deployed at multiple ecological scales, populations, communities, and landscapes will be required to forecast vegetation responses and feedbacks to accelerated global change.

Abstract

Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.

Please do not hesitate to read the full paper via the link below:

Global change and terrestrial plant community dynamics:



And why not join the community of readers of highly credible peer reviewed journal PNAS.(Proceedings of the American Academy of Science)  Link to all subject matter.

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Shale Gas Debate-UK widget added to my pages. NB. CO2 sequestration and use as a raw material in innovative materials

The struggle control and reduce  ever increasing CO2 gas (and all major green house gases)  is far from over.

Many thanks to The Insitute, IOM3 -Materials World (MW) prompted by their page,"members letters" in particular to F. Glasser and his team at Aberdeen Uni.,Scotland for their work in the "Extraction of CO2 like Sulphur") and CO2 capture in cement and concrete.

Cf. REF's as follows:

1. F.P. Glasser et al. Sequestering CO2 by Mineralization into Useful Nesquehonite-Based Products.
Iom3.org nanocem-cements-future

2. F.P.Glasser et al. Magnesium based cements for CO2 Capture and Utilisation. Cement and Concrete Research.

Capture and sequestering of CO2 -carbon dioxide-otherwise liberated to the atmosphere, is it appears, a minimum requirement in any shale gas extration project. Better, I guess, is the use of CO2 as a raw material to include in innovative materials products. This would certainly help responsible exploitation of such mineral reserves as Coal and Shale.

 It is also imperative that coal exploitation, coal burning for power generation must be orientated (urgently) in a similar direction ie in the direction of CO2 sequestration and in the CO2 incorporation in materials to provide new and innovative products.

Fredrik Glasser FIMMM, FRSE replies to a IOM3 member's question "Can we capture CO2 like sulphur." His response is brief "YES WE CAN",

"But the the road to market is not straight forward.

"The intense conservatism of the building industry is an important hold point,  so too is the obsession of UK policy with underground storage of liquid CO2 largely to the exclusion of other routes that might deliver positive economic value This policy is neither cheap nor assured and will require massive capital investment investment and ongoing subsidy." [NB. as mentioned Prof Glasser is based in Aberdeen, Scotland the capital (and capital intensive) of UK's fossil energy, North Sea Gas."

 My Comment :Glasser's remarks on policy are of particular importance. Considering CO2 as a raw material in the sustainable economic sense to innovate production of new and improved products and processes could possibly stimulate a more diverse and lively economic playing field as opposed to (or at least complimentary to) the "brushing the dirt under the carpet,  Capturing and sequestration, building prisons approach.

ALSO
Huge reserves are still available and exploited in several nearby countries, eg. Germany and even moreso Poland in our EU. cf . MW on the huge still unexploited Polish coal reserves

But, could Poland have seen the light?


"Prof. Lewiński's group has shown that appropriately designed precursor compounds in reaction with carbon dioxide lead to fabrication of a microporous material (with pore diameters below 2 nm) resulting from self-assembly of luminescent nanoclusters. Novel microporous material, composed of building blocks with zinc carbonate core encapsulated in appropriately designed organic shell (hydroxyquinoline ligands), is highly luminescent, with photoluminescence quantum yield significantly higher than those of classical fluorescent compounds used in state-of-the-art OLEDs."

Ref:

Carbon dioxide paves the way to unique nanomaterials

INSTITUTE OF PHYSICAL CHEMISTRY OF THE POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 


This above is an over simplified introduction to the huge amount of reaseach being undertaken world wide, on "CO2 as a very useful raw material in a mulitude of processes and products" .

Raw Materials demanding Innovations

"The emissions paradox

Compared to other building materials concrete has a low carbon footprint, i.e. it emits less CO2 per tonne. And yet, the enormous volumes used mean that concrete production accounts for about 3 - 8 percent of the man-made CO2 emissions worldwide.

Comparative relative energy and CO2 per construction material

However, given the very large volumes, total emissions are considerable. Because a small reduction in emission can make a real difference, our team of researchers can punch well above their weight and lay the basis for a global reduction of millions of tonnes of CO2 annually." cf Source:nanocem.org/cement-concrete/sustainability-emissions

AND from "The concrete solution, IOM3 Conference News MW June 2015 

 More  facts: 

Standard concrete mix releases up to 79.7kg of CO2 per tonne cf. nanocem value of 0.13 kgCO2/kg concrete. ie. 130kgCO2/tonne roughly 1.6x nanocem's figure. PARADOX indeed must find the reason for this 

By 2020 concrete’s embodied CO2 is estimated to reduce to 71.8kg per tonne of concrete

Certification to responsible sourcing standard BES 6001  has risen to 91%.

LINK: 'Plastics, the environment and human health

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences | Table of Contents — July 27, 2009, 364 (1526): "Theme Issue 'Plastics, the environment and human health' compiled by R. C. Thompson, C. J. Moore, F. S. vom Saal and S. H. Swan"



Repeat :"Theme Issue 'Plastics, the environment and human health'

Sustainability science: Exploiting the synergies published in Nature (NPG)

Sustainability science: Exploiting the synergies

David Griggs, professor of sustainable development at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, and the University of Warwick, UK. reviews in Nature, Economist Jeffrey D. Sachs book

The Age of Sustainable Development

 Columbia Univ. Press: 2015.ISBN: 9780231173148
Here I shall quote a couple of  quotes which I can easily relate to from Griggs review:
"As a concept and practice, sustainable development emerged on the global scene in 1972, with the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment. Four decades on, in the year that the United Nations is due to set its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the idea remains fuzzy around the edges. Jeffrey Sachs's The Age of Sustainable Development sharpens our understanding. It is, in my view, the best, most comprehensive and most articulate exposition of sustainable development ever written."

Economic and Social factors are underlined:

ECONOMIC:

"Sustainable development was once considered a problem of developing countries, solvable through, and almost as a by-product of, economic growth. But no country has pulled itself out of poverty without fossil fuels, whose emissions drive climate change and pollution, or nitrogen-based fertilizers, which promote algal blooms. And richer countries have demonstrated the problems of uncontrolled development of land and resources, a factor in biodiversity loss. Sustainable development is crucial for all countries, so the SDGs will apply to every nation."

SOCIAL

"How to achieve a sustainable future? Education, Sachs notes, is a lynchpin. When girls stay in school for longer, fertility rates drop. Households with fewer children invest more in education, health and nutrition. He quotes Scottish economist Adam Smith, who wrote in The Wealth of Nations (1776) that because society benefits when people are educated, the costs should be “defrayed by the general contribution of the whole society”. That we have not achieved this more than two centuries later is a baffling and damning indictment."  Blogger's note(Although the Scots are known for their legendary frugality many may take a book from the bicycle Dutch population. Granted Holland is a flat country.

SCIENTIFICALY MEASURED FACTS:

"Alongside the social challenges are climate change, ocean acidification and the current mass extinction of species — serious threats to humanity's capacity to thrive or even survive. For example, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising by more than 2 parts per million each year. Sachs concludes that no country is currently on a path to sustainable development."

HOLISTIC NATURE OF THESE PROBLEMS. 

"What becomes clear is that understanding the links between these issues is essential. Along with development aims such as sanitation and health care for a growing and ageing population, there are environmental challenges such as mitigating climate change."

The full review and related links to NPG are well worth reading_Great background reading for COP21 participants and all concerned citizens!

• Related links in NPG (Nature Publishing Group
• Economics: Manufacture renewables to build energy security
• Policy: Bring sustainable energy to the developing world
• Eco-engineering: Living in a materials world
• Policy: Sustainable development goals for people and planet
• Ecodesign: The bottom line
• Sustainability through computing
• Related external links
• Jeffrey Sachs
• Sustainable Development UN Knowledge Platform

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Climate -COP21 Paris updates from Nature

"Momentum builds for a new treaty as world leaders prepare
to descend on Paris." 

"The road to a new global climate treaty
has been slow and plodding. But years
of delicate negotiations have given way
to cautious optimism as more than 190 nations
prepare for the marathon climate talks that
begin in Paris on 30 November."

writes JEFF TOLLEFSON 

REF:

Pledges raise hopes ahead of climate talks (pdf)

 418 | NATURE | VOL 527 | 26 NOVEMBER 2015



AND



First tranche of aid projects prompts concern over operations of fund for developing nations. (pdf)



writes  SANJAY KUMAR in the same volume;

REF: 26 NOVEMBER 2015 | VOL 527 | NATURE | 419.



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Renewables key in race against climate change clock by Phys.Org's M.Hood.

"Any plausible game plan for capping the rise of Earth's surface temperature depends on replacing fossil fuels with energy sources that generate little or no carbon pollution." writes Marlowe Hood in Phys Org November 1, 2015.


India's commitment on RHS-->>
so please read on...

Hood quoting reliable sources continues:

"That means renewables, especially solar and wind, both of which face fewer constraints to growth than more established clean energy: a river can be dammed only so many times, and nuclear remains expensive and controversial.

But humanity has dithered for so long in the fight against global warming, experts say, that the window of opportunity for decarbonising the global economy fast enough to avoid devastating climate change is barely ajar.

"The cost and difficulty of mitigating greenhouse gases increases every year, time is of the essence," Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said in a special IEA report on energy and climate change released earlier this year.

The world's nations -– gathering in Paris in a month to ink the first-ever universal climate pact—have set a target of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

Cross that red line, scientists say, and there will, almost literally, be hell to pay.

Science also tells us that, if we are to respect the 2 C limit, future greenhouse gas emissions cannot exceed a total "budget" of about 1,000 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Carbon-cutting pledges from nearly 150 nations, unveiled on Friday, put us on track for a 3 C world.

This is a vast improvement on doing nothing. But even this unprecedented effort would use up three quarters of that carbon budget by 2030, leaving very little margin for closing the remaining gap. That's where the transition from fossil fuels to renewables comes in

President Obama is quoted as follows "Energy production accounts for two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions, and thus transformation of this sector is crucial", he and other experts said.
OTHER IMPORTANT SOURCES QUOTED:
"According to the UN climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), low-carbon energy must account for at least 80 percent of global electricity production by 2050 to have a better-than-even chance of staying under the 2 C threshold".
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2015-11-renewables-key-climate-clock.html#jCp

Renewables key in race against climate change clock: "Renewables key in race against climate change clock"

ENCOURAGEMENT  from SUMMAT LEVEL: US President Obama see image

US President Barack Obama speaks with Commander Col Ronald Jolly as he tours a solar array at Hill Air Force Base in Utah

"Decarbonising energy is probably the quickest way to decarbonise the world," Adnan Amin, director general of the International Renewable Energies Agency.

The good news is that renewables are expanding rapidly and attracting investment.

Nearly half of all new installed power generation capacity in 2014 was in renewables—37 percent wind, a third solar and a quarter hydro, according to the IEA.

Investment in the sector totalled more than a quarter of a trillion dollars in the same year, an 8.5 percent increase over 2013.

"Capital markets have already begun to shift away from dirty technology to clean technology," Christina Figueres, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, told journalists Friday in releasing an analysis of national emissions-reduction pledges.

ENDNOTE:

But renewables only account for about 20 percent of global electricity generation, and three-quarters of that is hydro. Of total energy consumption -– overwhelmingly dominated by coal, oil and gas –- less than five percent comes from clean technology, excluding nuclear.

The transition towards a low-carbon economy is also hampered by fossil fuel subsidies totalling more than half-a-trillion dollars every year, four times the amount allocated for renewables.

Experts say, the Paris climate summit, which starts at the end of this month, is so crucial.

"COP21" -– the Paris climate summit -–STILL "needs to give a global and long-term signal to the world economy that is relevant to investors," said Martin Kaiser, a climate analyst from Greenpeace.

Read the full article in PhyOrg 






refs:
Read more on Phys Org

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