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A survey conducted in England and Ireland after a major flooding event shows that perceptions of individual responsibility for protection depend on the specific social and policy context. Perception of future risk, in the case of people directly affected by the flooding, also depends on the context. Expectations about the state’s responsibility for climate protection are critical in promoting longer-term adaptation to the changing climate.
- W. Neil Adger,
- Tara Quinn,
- Irene Lorenzoni,
- Conor Murphy &
- John Sweeney
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Political and media debate on the existence and causes of climate change often rests on claims about what most citizens really think. New research demonstrates that people overestimate how common their own opinion is, and when they do they are less likely to change their view. People also overestimate how many reject the existence of climate change.
- Z. Leviston,
- I. Walker &
- S. Morwinski
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The long-term demand for materials and the opportunities for scrap recycling depend on the stock dynamics of the products in use. In the case of aluminium, research shows that new technologies in primary production can reduce emissions while the aluminium stocks grow, but beyond stock saturation the largest reduction potential shifts to scrap recycling.
- Gang Liu,
- Colton E. Bangs &
- Daniel B. Müller
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Research in America finds that observable climate impacts increase people’s certainty about global warming and that prior certainty shapes people’s perceptions of the impacts. The first process happens frequently among people less engaged in the issue of climate change whereas the second process is typical of people already convinced about it.
- Teresa A. Myers,
- Edward W. Maibach,
- Connie Roser-Renouf,
- Karen Akerlof &
- Anthony A. Leiserowitz
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Understanding public engagement with climate change in developing countries is critical for the success of local adaptation strategies. A study in Indonesia shows that nearly one-third of the population has observed and perceived risks of climate change—contrary to previous research suggesting low levels of awareness—but has not taken action to address it.
- Erin L. Bohensky,
- Alex Smajgl &
- Tom Brewer
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Research based on a survey across 89 countries demonstrates that individuals who live in places with rising average temperatures are more likely than others to perceive local warming. The study also suggests that personal experience of the impacts of climate change may shift public opinion about the reality of global warming.
- Peter D. Howe,
- Ezra M. Markowitz,
- Tien Ming Lee,
- Chia-Ying Ko &
- Anthony Leiserowitz
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In 1990 the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was produced. It contained a prediction of the global-mean-temperature trend for 1990–2030 which, halfway through that period, appears accurate. This is remarkable in hindsight, considering a number of important external forcings were not included. This study concludes the greenhouse-gas-induced warming is largely overwhelming the other forcings.
- David J. Frame &
- Dáithí A. Stone
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Seamless quantification of past and present climate variability is needed to understand the Earth’s climate well enough to make accurate predictions for the future. This study addresses whether tree-ring-dominated proxy data properly represent the frequency spectrum of true climate variability. The results challenge the validity of detection and attribution investigations based on these data.
- Jörg Franke,
- David Frank,
- Christoph C. Raible,
- Jan Esper &
- Stefan Brönnimann
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This study looks at solar radiation management and how the benefits will vary between regions. Using a general circulation model, the trade-offs between optimizing latitudinal and seasonal distribution of reduced solar radiation are investigated.
- Douglas G. MacMartin,
- David W. Keith,
- Ben Kravitz &
- Ken Caldeira
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Updated models are being used for the new assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This study compares projections from the latest models with those from earlier versions. The spread of results has not changed significantly, and some of the spread will always remain due to the internal variability of the climate system. As models improve, they are able to represent more processes in greater detail, allowing for greater confidence in their projections, in spite of model spread.
- Reto Knutti &
- Jan Sedláček
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Recharge sustains groundwater resources that are depended on globally for drinking water and irrigated agriculture. A newly compiled 55-year record of groundwater-level observations in an aquifer in central Tanzania reveals the highly episodic occurrence of recharge resulting from anomalously intense seasonal rainfall. Model projections show a shift towards more intense monthly rainfall, which favours groundwater recharge, suggesting it may be a viable adaptation water source in the future.
- Richard G. Taylor,
- Martin C. Todd,
- Lister Kongola,
- Louise Maurice,
- Emmanuel Nahozya,
- + et al.
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Snow accumulation is critical for water availability in the Northern Hemisphere. Model projections show a shift towards low snow years, with areas of western North America, northeastern Europe and the Greater Himalayas showing the strongest decline. Many snow-dependent regions are likely to experience increasing stress from low snow years if global warming exceeds 2° above the pre-industrial baseline.
- Noah S. Diffenbaugh,
- Martin Scherer &
- Moetasim Ashfaq
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Human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle have the potential to influence hazards such as flooding and drought, so understanding the extent of our influence is an important research goal. A study utilizing estimates of evapotranspiration for different types of land cover and a database of changes in use now shows that the extent of land-cover change caused by people is already an important factor affecting the terrestrial water cycle.
- Shannon M. Sterling,
- Agnès Ducharne &
- Jan Polcher
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Most lakes are net sources of CO2; conventionally the CO2 in lake waters is attributed to in-lake oxidation of terrestrially-produced dissolved organic carbon. Now research indicates that CO2 in lakes may be delivered directly via inflowing streams. These findings suggest that future CO2 emissions from lakes will be strongly related to productivity in the lake catchment.
- Stephen C. Maberly,
- Philip A. Barker,
- Andy W. Stott &
- Mitzi M. De Ville
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Soils are the largest repository of organic carbon in the terrestrial biosphere. Nevertheless, relatively little is known about the factors controlling the efficiency with which microbial communities utilize carbon, and its effect on soil–atmosphere CO2 exchange. Now research using long-term experimental plots suggests that climate warming could alter the decay dynamics of more stable organic-matter compounds with implications for carbon storage in soils and ultimately climate warming.
- Serita D. Frey,
- Juhwan Lee,
- Jerry M. Melillo &
- Johan Six
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